Southern Downs residents can breathe a sigh of relief after Maranoa MP David Littleproud easily saw off a challenge by back-bencher Colin Boyce last Monday. According to reports, no other colleague supported his motion, cementing LIttleproud's position as leader of the National Party. The next step for the beleagured politician is meeting with Susan Ley and rehabilitating the Coalition in order to block further inroads by One Nation, which is surging at the polls at the time of publication.
Leadership unrest has dogged both parties since the Nationals exited the Coalition agreement a fortnight ago, with senior figures from the Liberals’ right faction capitalising on the turmoil to position Angus Taylor as the preferred successor to Ms Ley. Backers of Mr Taylor told the ABC they were not expecting any immediate move against Ms Ley during parliament’s first sitting week, largely because they lacked the numbers in the 51-member party room to unseat her.
Mr Boyce told the ABC he expected Mr Littleproud to “comprehensively win” the ballot unless a late challenger emerged. Instead, it appears Mr Boyce instigated the action to convince party colleagues that the uncertainties around the future of the Coalition and Mr Littleproud were untenable.
Uncertainty continues to hang over Ms Ley’s leadership, despite more than a dozen Liberal MPs and senators privately suggesting they do not expect a challenge when the party meets on Tuesday morning. Nevertheless, Mr Taylor’s supporters are keeping open the possibility of a spill in the second sitting week. Mr Taylor has argued that a possible interest rate rise due on Tuesday should not be eclipsed by internal Liberal disputes. At the same time, his allies believe looming opinion polls — expected to deliver dire results for the Liberals — could prompt the party room to move against Ms Ley, who is experiencing detrimental polling.
Both sides of the Liberal divide acknowledge the numbers are tight, but Ms Ley’s supporters note this is not new, pointing out she defeated Mr Taylor only narrowly, by 25 votes to 29, nine months ago. Moderates still support Ms Ley. Her allies have also dismissed claims from the right faction that her support among unaligned Liberals is “soft” and question the unity of the right, suggesting not all MPs who favoured West Australian Andrew Hastie as a leadership contender prefer Mr Taylor. Mr Hastie confirmed on Friday he would not challenge Ms Ley for now, citing insufficient support from colleagues.
Mr Littleproud has floated the idea of reuniting the Coalition on the condition that three senior MPs who broke shadow cabinet solidarity are forgiven, a proposal strongly opposed by many Liberals, despite earlier arguing that his party would not work with Ms Ley as leader. However, last Sunday, Nationals deputy leader Kevin Hogan indicated reconciliation could occur if the Liberals restored senators Bridget McKenzie, Ross Caddell and Susan McDonald to the frontbench.
One conservative Liberal warned that if Ms Ley reinstated the three Nationals, she would face a spill immediately. Ms Ley sought talks with Mr Littleproud ahead of parliament’s return last Tuesday, but has also issued an ultimatum, threatening to permanently fill her frontbench with Liberals if the Nationals do not rejoin the Coalition by the end of the week.
Mr Littleproud initially declined to meet Ms Ley while dealing with his own leadership challenge, but later said he would be open to discussions after last Monday’s spill. Liberal deputy leader Ted O’Brien has said the party could operate as opposition on its own but preferred partnership with the Nationals.
